On Wednesday, Ukraine halted the supply of Russian natural gas through a key gateway that supplies European households and industry, while a pro-Kremlin official in a southern region taken by Russian soldiers announced that the country would ask Moscow to annex it.
The comments could be part of Russia’s larger strategy for Ukraine, as it tries to salvage an invasion that has so far gone badly, amid fears that the country will be a source of continental and global instability for months, if not years, to come.
President Vladimir Putin moved his focus to the Donbas, the country’s eastern heartland when his soldiers failed to seize the capital city immediately. One of his commanders, though, has stated that Moscow’s objectives are more expansive, claiming that Moscow wants to control the country’s south and cut it off from the coast.
“Kherson is Russia,” Kirill Stremousov, deputy director of the Moscow-installed regional administration, told Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency. Regional leaders, he said, sought to make Kherson a “real Russian region.”
Although Russian-installed officials do not always speak for Moscow, Stremousov ruled out handing over the authority of the Kherson region to Ukrainian authorities last month.
Kherson is on the border with Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Its annexation was one of Russia’s most significant victories in the conflict.
In 11 weeks, the war has played out not just on battlefields in Ukrainian villages and cities, but also on energy and financial markets, as Ukraine’s Western allies have attempted to deprive Russia of the funds it needs to finance the war through sanctions and oil embargoes.
Because much of the gas may be channeled through another pipeline, the immediate practical impact of Wednesday’s gas cutoff is likely to be minimal, according to gas expert Zongqiang Luo of Rystad Energy.
Although Russia’s state-owned firm Gazprom projected a decline in supplies, preliminary flow data revealed that was already happening. It said it was transferring 72 million cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine, down 25% from the day before.
The decision emphasizes the war’s greater threat to gas supplies and is symbolic in that it is the first time Ukraine has halted the flow westward.
“Today’s decision is just a taste of what could happen if gas installations are damaged by live fire and experience protracted outages,” Luo warned.
He went on to say that the outage would make it more difficult for European countries to replenish subterranean storage for next winter and that it would “hasten Europe’s ambitions to move away from Russian gas imports.”
The European Union has attempted to minimize its reliance on Russian energy by phasing out coal consumption and considering doing the same with oil. Given how much gas Europe uses and the technological hurdles in obtaining it elsewhere, gas is a more challenging issue.
It was unclear whether Russia would suffer any immediate consequences because it has long-term commitments and alternative gas transportation options.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian sources reported that a Russian missile attack hit an area near Zaporizhzhia, destroying unspecified infrastructure. There were no reports of casualties right away. Many citizens have sought safety in the southern city after fleeing a Russian siege in the damaged port city of Mariupol.
Russian troops also continued to shell the city’s final stronghold of Ukrainian resistance, according to its defenders.
The Azov Regiment reported on social media on Wednesday that Russian forces had carried out 38 airstrikes “on the territory” of the Azovstal steelworks in the previous 24 hours.
Hundreds of Ukrainian troops and civilians have been hiding within the massive steel plant, which has a network of underground tunnels and bunkers. Hundreds of residents have been evacuated in recent days, but Ukrainian officials suggested Tuesday that another 100 could be stranded.
On Wednesday, the spouses of two Ukrainian soldiers guarding the mill met with Pope Francis and requested him to intercede to assist in the evacuation of the troops. Yuliia Fedusiuk, one of the soldiers, stated the troops were out of the water and had no food. She added she understood some people remained in the mills who were soldiers’ relatives.
Meanwhile, in his nighttime speech, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the military was progressively forcing Russian soldiers out of Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city and a vital location in Russia’s Donbas offensive.
He said that his soldiers had forced Russian forces out of four villages in the city’s vicinity.
On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed greater confidence — and enlarged ambitions — as his forces appear to be gathering speed in a nascent counteroffensive. He told the Financial Times that Ukraine may move beyond simply compelling Russia to withdraw from regions it controlled before the assault began 11 weeks ago.
Kuleba’s statement seems to reflect political goals rather than battlefield realities: Russian forces have advanced in the Donbas and now control a larger portion of the region than they did before the conflict began. However, it demonstrates how Ukraine has stopped a larger, better-armed Russian military, shocking many who had expected the conflict to conclude much sooner.
Meanwhile, the British Defense Ministry reported that Ukraine was targeting Russian forces on Snake Island in the Black Sea’s northwest, in an attempt to stymie Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence.
Russia has attempted to bolster its garrison on Snake Island, while Ukraine has “effectively targeted Russian air defenses and resupplied warships with Bayraktar drones,” according to the ministry’s Twitter account. After losing the flagship of its Black Sea force, the Russian Navy retreated to Crimea, it said Russian resupply vessels had no protection.
Reporters that analyzed satellite photographs saw fighting going on.
“Russia might dominate the northwestern Black Sea if it consolidates its position on (Snake) Island with strategic air defense and coastal defense cruise missiles,” the statement said.
Because of interference from “occupying forces,” including apparent gas siphoning, Ukraine’s natural gas pipeline operator announced it would halt Russian imports through a terminal in eastern Ukraine held by Moscow-backed separatists. Last month, it also complained about interference along the route.
On the announcement, benchmark European gas futures seesawed Tuesday and Wednesday, implying that customers may face higher energy expenditures at a time when prices are already rising.
Higher prices would help Russia, despite the fact that it now has large foreign reserves as a result of the recent quick surge in crude oil prices as global travel and business restarted following mass coronavirus pandemic lockdowns.
About a third of Russian gas traveling through Ukraine on its way to Western Europe passes through this center. Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned natural gas company estimates that the figure is around a quarter.
The move came as Western nations sought to increase economic pressure on Moscow while supporting Ukraine’s defenders. The United States House of Representatives passed a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine on Tuesday.
As the war enters its third month, with little sign of a clear military triumph for either side and no end in sight, US officials and NATO allies are concerned that Russia is digging in for a long fight.
The Atlantic alliance is also waiting to see if Sweden and Finland, two of Russia’s key Baltic Sea neighbors, will announce plans to join NATO, which might be a major setback for Russia.
