Countries in the European Union have had to adjust to previously unheard-of conditions throughout the past five years.
To revive their COVID-19-ravaged economies, they banded together to buy tens of millions of vaccines and came up with a creative loan financing plan.
Three years ago, Russia cut off natural gas supplies to erode Western support for Kyiv when President Vladimir Putin ordered his soldiers into Ukraine.
In response, the 27 EU countries quickly weaned themselves off of their reliance on Russian energy.
They now have to deal with the difficulty of reducing their dependency on American security.
Senior Trump administration officials recently stated that Europe, including Ukraine, should take care of itself and that the United States wants to focus on Asia and the southern border of the United States.
Friedrich Merz, likely Germany’s next chancellor, told broadcaster ZDF that his top objective after winning Sunday’s election would be to fortify Europe as soon as possible so that we can attain independence from the U.S. step by step.
Merz acknowledged his astonishment at the seeming lack of concern for the future of Europe on the part of the United States, saying, “I never thought I would have to say such a thing on a television program.”
He and other EU leaders seem committed to adjusting to the new security realities, even though they were excluded from the peace negotiations in Ukraine.
However, it’s questionable if they can organize the political will or gather the financial and military resources to protect their interests.
The widening securities divide across Europe.
According to NATO, partners’ defense expenditures ought to allocate at least 2% of their GDP. Spain and Italy, two powerful EU nations, are not even close. Portugal, Slovenia, Belgium, Croatia, and Luxembourg also don’t.
According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, member nations should likely spend between 3.5% and 3.7% to carry out the alliance’s goals for European defense.
Rutte is concerned that by the end of the decade, Russia might be ready to launch an attack on a European nation.
The United States is part of their defense preparations.
Europe may require 300,000 troops and an annual budget increase of at least 250 billion euros ($262 billion) to deter Russia without U.S. forces, according to the Brussels-based Bruegel think group.
Laptops 1000Bruegel stated that 700 artillery pieces, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,400 tanks may be needed to halt a Russian onslaught.
It claimed that this was more combat strength than the combined ground armies of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has appealed for 150,000 European troops to help prevent a resurgence of the violence following a truce, but Europe’s forces are insufficient.
Under one option, less than 30,000 European soldiers would be on the ground, supported by naval and air forces. Finding even that many is difficult.
The financial situation.
Europe’s defense spending has increased since Russia’s invasion started in earnest.
A lot of money is spent on weapons to keep Ukraine in the war and replenish depleted European supplies, but demand is driving up prices.
Europe lacks military transport and logistics chains and has a shortage of manpower; it’s combined armies have about 2 million soldiers, but few of them can be deployed effectively.
Conscription is becoming more and more of a possibility.
To help fill these gaps, the European Commission is loosening its fiscal regulations to allow EU member states to increase their defense spending, at least temporarily.
Whether Merz would ease Germany’s resistance to EU defense bonds is still up in the air.
This would take advantage of cooperative borrowing to offer grants and low-interest loans, much like Europe’s post-pandemic recovery did. Defense bonds are already supported by France, Italy, Poland, and Spain.
The commission will release its “white paper,” which includes suggestions for significant military initiatives, strategies to strengthen Europe’s defense sector, and funding strategies, on March 19.
In the long run, funding will be redirected toward security in the EU’s upcoming seven-year budget.
“There is a renewed desire to have a serious discussion about Europe’s defense capabilities,” EU Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin declared last week.
However, he cautioned that any defense-related activity “should take place now” because the effects of the new budget might not be realized until 2030.
Political will is a scarce resource in Europe.
It’s challenging to find the money to adjust to the new security realities. The political fortitude and cohesion needed to take on a foe like Russia are also lacking.
Old habits don’t go away, and Europe has relied on American protection for decades.
Former EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy stated in 2016, just before Donald Trump was elected President of the United States for the first time, that the EU “cannot become a truly regional and global actor without a relevant military dimension.”
Reaching a consensus among 27 nations has never been simple. After more than eight years, Europe may be at its lowest point as the traditional order is being undermined by the inexorable growth of a hard right that is frequently pro-Russian.
Despite the extreme right’s second-place finish in the German elections, Merz could help stabilize the country.
However, the most recent French government is shaky. Spain’s government depends on small parties, while Geert Wilders, a hard-right leader, leads a wobbly Dutch administration.
Poland seems to be doing well, under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But a right-wing candidate is in a strong position as a presidential election approaches. After months of squabbling, Belgium just elected a new government.
With Premier Georgia Meloni leading a neo-fascist-leaning ruling party, Italy is arguably the most stable but yet fairly unpredictable country. Slovakia and Hungary have been disruptive among smaller nations, undercutting EU support for Ukraine.
Real action is unlikely to occur until Europe has a common understanding of the security challenge it confronts.
