Climate experts warn that despite months of record-breaking heat on land and sea, nations have failed to establish more ambitious goals, making the aim of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increasingly out of reach.
Average global surface air temperatures were more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for many days while envoys gathered in Bonn in early June to get ready for this year’s annual climate conference in November, according to the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Although mean temperatures had previously briefly exceeded the 1.5C mark, this was the first instance of it occurring during the northern hemisphere summer, which begins on June 1. Also breaking records in April and May were sea temperatures.
Because change takes time, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climatologist at Australia’s University of New South Wales, declared, “We’ve run out of time.”
Extreme heatwaves have rocked the United States, while temperatures in Beijing, the capital of China, shattered June records as climate envoys from the two largest producers of greenhouse gases get ready to meet next month.
This month, temperatures in certain parts of North America were about 10 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average, and dangerous air covered over Canada and the U.S. East Coast by forest fire smoke, with carbon emissions reaching a record 160 million metric tons.
Extreme heat has been recorded in Spain, Iran, and Vietnam, prompting concerns that the deadly summer of last year could become commonplace.
Deaths have reportedly increased in India, one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, as a result of continuous high temperatures.
The World Meteorological Organization forecasted in May that there is now a 66% chance that the annual mean will breach the 1.5C threshold for at least one full year between now and 2027. Countries pledged in Paris in 2015 to attempt to limit long-term average temperature hikes within 1.5C.
QUALITY WHAMMY
Sea surface temperatures have mirrored the high temperatures on land, with warming being accelerated by an El Nino event and other factors.
Late in March, the global average sea surface temperature reached 21C, and it has stayed there ever since, setting new seasonal records for April and May. Australia’s meteorological service issued a warning that by October, sea temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans might be 3C warmer than average.
According to Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds, global warming is the primary cause, although El Nino, a decrease in the amount of Saharan dust blowing over the ocean, and the adoption of low-sulfur shipping fuels are also to blame.
Overall, he said, “Oceans are being hit by a quadruple whammy.” “It heralds better things to come.”
Numerous dead fish have been found washing up on Texas beaches, while sea lions and dolphins in California have also perished as a result of heat-induced algae blooms.
According to Georgia Institute of Technology meteorologist Annalisa Bracco, warmer waters may also result in less wind and rain, which would feed the cycle of increased heat.
The “perfect combination” of events led to this year’s high water temperatures, but the ecological damage might last for some time, she warned.
The ocean will react very slowly since it accumulates heat gradually but also retains it for a very long time.
TRAIL TO DUBAI
According to climate experts, there has been an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events this year, including fatal cyclones in Africa and the world’s most severe droughts.
The Worldwide Fund for Nature, meanwhile, expressed concern over a “worrying lack of momentum” during this month’s climate conference in Bonn, noting that little progress has been made in advance of the COP28 climate meetings in Dubai on important topics including fossil fuels and financing.
Li Shuo, a senior climate adviser for Greenpeace in Beijing, expressed her disappointment by saying, “It was very detached from what was going on outside of the building in Bonn.”
“We are truly approaching the turning point… I’m hoping the truth itself will influence people’s decisions and alter politics.
Although few anticipate that John Kerry’s visit to Beijing will give the climate negotiations more traction, talks between the United States and China may resume the following week.
“This is more of a trust-building exercise,” Li remarked. “The politics won’t allow it, but I don’t think either side will be able to push the other side to say much more than they are willing to do.”
