Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister has returned to the front lines of a year-long conflict as rival fighters close in on the capital, his administration declared Wednesday.
Abiy Ahmed, a 45-year-old former soldier, was not visible on state media, and his spokeswoman Billene Seyoum dismissed a request for information on his whereabouts as “incredible.” According to a government spokesman, he arrived at the front on Tuesday.
The fighting between Ethiopian federal and ally troops and fighters from the country’s Tigray area has killed tens of thousands of people. The idea of Ethiopia’s historic nation dissolving has terrified Ethiopians and observers alike, who are concerned about what might happen to the Horn of Africa as a whole. France, Germany, and Turkey have all advised their citizens to evacuate immediately.
Many people have been surprised by Abiy’s rise from receiving the Nobel Prize just two years ago to now perhaps facing combat. According to Christopher Clapham, a retired professor affiliated with the University of Cambridge, a move to the front would follow in the footsteps of Ethiopian leaders such as Emperor Haile Selassie and Emperor Yohannes IV, who were killed in battle in 1889.
Clapham described it as “a very classic Ethiopian exertion of leadership.” “It may be required to save an Ethiopian military response that appears to be on the verge of collapsing.”
The Tigray troops, which had long dominated the national government prior to Abiy’s election, looked to be gaining ground. They’ve been approaching Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, in recent weeks in the hopes of bolstering their negotiation position or just pushing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to resign.
While unprecedented, a leader’s deployment to the front has happened elsewhere in Africa, with terrible consequences: Chad’s president, Idriss Deby Itno, was murdered in April while combating rebels, according to the military.
Adem Abebe, a researcher with the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, described the scenario as “very perilous.” “Not only would the federal government fall if (Abiy) is injured or murdered; the army will as well.”
The prime minister announced his deployment to the front lines earlier this week, stating that “this is a period when leading a country with martyrdom is required.” Meanwhile, spokesman Legesse Tulu said Wednesday that the deputy prime minister is in charge of the government’s day-to-day operations.
Abiy also encouraged Ethiopians to fight alongside him, the latest demand for every capable citizen in the country of over 110 million people to join the war. In recent months, there have been reports of rushed military training and charges of forced conscription, while observers have warned that ethnic-based militias are rising up as the military appears to be weaker.
“He may be genuinely considering becoming a martyr,” said Awol Allo, a senior lecturer in law at Keele University in the United Kingdom, who nominated Abiy for the Nobel Prize.
The decision, according to Allo, accords with the prime minister’s self-perception and belief that he was born to lead. He didn’t rule out the notion, though, that Abiy had merely fled the city for a safer area — not the front — and was now leading the fight from there.
On Tuesday, US envoy Jeffrey Feltman told reporters that he is concerned that “nascent” progress in mediation efforts with the warring parties may be overtaken by “alarming” military developments.
In November 2020, a growing political schism between Tigray’s leaders and Abiy’s government erupted into outright violence.
The Tigray soldiers have stated that, among other things, Abiy must leave. As part of their terms, Abiy’s administration wants Tigray forces to retreat to their territory, which it has labeled as a terrorist group.
“Unless there is some kind of divine intervention,” Kassahun Berhanu, a political science professor at Addis Ababa University, said, “I don’t see any chance for a peaceful resolution through dialogue because the positions are highly polarized.” He added that he believes Abiy’s announcement about going to the front is “aimed at boosting popular morale.”
During the conflict, millions of civilians are trapped and becoming hungry. Ethiopia’s government has imposed a blockade on the Tigray region for several months, citing concerns that humanitarian aid will fall into the hands of fighters, while hundreds of thousands of people in the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions are cut off from aid as Tigray forces advance through those areas.
The supply line from neighboring Djibouti to Ethiopia’s capital looks to be one of the Tigray forces’ targets, and the US envoy warned the rebels against cutting it off or approaching Addis Ababa.
Feltman told reporters on Tuesday that this might be “catastrophic” for the country.
Olusegun Obasanjo, the African Union’s envoy, has also been mediating, but has not spoken publicly about his efforts in recent days.
