Despite intensive weekend discussions between the Kremlin and the West, some airlines have canceled or redirected flights to Ukraine due to rising fears of a Russian invasion.
President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin in an hour-long phone call on Saturday that invading Ukraine would result in “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to resolve the crisis, but was “equally prepared for other scenarios,” according to the White House. It made no attempt to imply that the appeal lessened the possibility of a European conflict.
The two presidents spoke just a day after Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that US intelligence indicates a Russian invasion may start within days.
Russia denies that it intends to invade Ukraine, but it has amassed a force of over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has moved troops to neighboring Belarus for military exercises. According to US authorities, Russia’s military buildup has reached the stage where it may invade at any time.
KLM, a Dutch airline, has stopped flights to Ukraine until further notice, according to a statement released on Saturday.
Following the shooting down of a Malaysian aircraft over a region of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia-backed separatists in 2014, Dutch sensitivity to potential risk in Ukrainian airspace is high. All 298 passengers and crew members died, including 198 Dutch citizens.
After the plane’s Irish lessor claimed it was barring flights in Ukrainian airspace, the Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to Chisinau, Moldova.
The chat between Putin and Biden, which followed a call between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron earlier in the day, occurred at a key juncture in what has become Russia’s and the West’s largest security crisis since the Cold War. Officials in the United States feel they only have a few days to prevent an invasion and massive carnage in Ukraine.
While the United States and its NATO partners have no intentions to send troops to Ukraine to combat Russia, an invasion and the ensuing sanctions may have far-reaching consequences that would disrupt energy supply, global markets, and Europe’s power balance.
“President Biden made it clear to President Putin that, while the United States is prepared to engage in diplomacy in full coordination with our Allies and partners,” the White House statement added.
While tensions have been rising for months, Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy advisor, stated that in recent days “the situation has just been taken to the brink of ridiculousness.”
Biden addressed future sanctions against Russia, but “this issue was not the emphasis during a pretty long chat with the Russian leader,” according to him.
The US announced plans to evacuate most of its staff from the embassy in Kyiv and asked all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, indicating that officials are preparing for the worst-case scenario. The United Kingdom has joined other European countries in advising its nationals to flee Ukraine.
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced Saturday that Canada has closed its embassy in Kyiv and relocated its diplomatic employees to a temporary location in Lviv, Ukraine’s western region. A Ukrainian military post in Lviv has acted as the major hub for Canada’s 200-soldier training mission in the former Soviet republic.
The timing of any potential Russian military action is still a major concern.
According to a US official familiar with the results, the US received evidence that Russia is targeting Wednesday as a target date. The official, who was not authorized to speak to the press and spoke on the condition of anonymity, would not specify how conclusive the intelligence was.
The Defense Ministry summoned the U.S. Embassy’s military attaché on Saturday after the navy detected an American submarine in Russian waters near the Kuril Islands in the Pacific, escalating tensions between the two countries. The submarine refused to leave but did so when the navy utilized “necessary means,” according to the ministry.
The Pentagon added to the impression of danger by sending an additional 3,000 US troops to Poland to reassure allies.
In addition to the more than 100,000-foot troops positioned around Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders, the Russians have deployed missile, air, naval, and special operations units, as well as supplies to maintain a conflict, according to US sources. Russia deployed six amphibious assault ships into the Black Sea this week, bolstering its ability to land commandos on the shore.
As reassurance to allies on NATO’s eastern flank, Biden has increased the US military posture in Europe. On top of the 1,700 soldiers already on their way to Poland, an extra 3,000 soldiers have been ordered. The US Army is also relocating 1,000 troops from Germany to Romania, which shares a border with Ukraine and Poland.
Russia is requesting that the West exclude former Soviet republics from NATO membership. It also wants NATO to stop stationing weapons near its border and withdraw alliance forces from Eastern Europe, demands that the West has firmly rejected.
Since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was forced out of office by a popular uprising, Russia and Ukraine have been at odds. Moscow retaliated by annexing the Crimean Peninsula and then supporting a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where over 14,000 people have been murdered in conflict.
Large-scale warfare was halted by a 2015 peace pact brokered by France and Germany, but frequent skirmishes have continued, and efforts to establish a political settlement have faltered.
