China’s trade surplus in dollar terms for 2025 crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time in November, following an unexpected decline in October, according to figures released on Monday.
In November, exports increased by 5.9% compared to the same month in the previous year, while imports rose by slightly less than 2%.
Additionally, shipments to the United States fell by about 29% year over year, according to customs data released on Monday.
However, China is expanding its export markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America as trade with the United States declines.
October saw a slight decline of over 1% in China’s exports. Global exports totaled $330.3 billion in November, surpassing experts’ projections. For the month, $218.6 billion was imported.
According to official data gathered by FactSet, the over $1.08 trillion trade surplus for the first 11 months of this year is a record high, exceeding the $992 billion surplus for the entire year 2024.
While shipments to other countries, such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, have increased, exports from China to the United States have decreased throughout the majority of the year.
At a summit in late October in South Korea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a one-year trade truce between the two countries.
China has pledged to remove its export restrictions on rare earths, and the United States has reduced its tariffs on China.
According to research written by Lynn Song, senior economist for Greater China at ING Bank, “It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months.”
According to an official survey, China’s manufacturing activity shrank for the eighth consecutive month in November. Economists cautioned that it was too soon to say whether the U.S.-China trade truce had actually increased foreign demand.
Economists generally anticipate that China will achieve its goal of about 5% annual growth this year, given the continued strength of exports.
After a high-level conference in October, Chinese authorities outlined a priority on advanced manufacturing for the next five years.
According to the Xinhua state news agency, Xi presided over an annual gathering on Monday to outline plans for 2026.
Chinese officials reaffirmed their commitment to “pursuing progress while ensuring stability,” according to the report.
In light of international “trade struggles,” China must better coordinate its internal economic efforts, according to a readout from Xinhua.
According to Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, the recent stabilisation of trade ties with Washington is unlikely to persist long since, despite their brief trade truce, China-US relations “remain in a stalemate.”
Nonetheless, some analysts think that China will keep expanding its export market share in the years to come.
According to Morgan Stanley, China’s advantage in advanced manufacturing and high-growth industries, including electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries, would propel its market share in global exports from roughly 15% to 16.5% by 2030.
In a recent statement, Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya stated, “We believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies.”
