NVIDIA has informed Chinese clients that it plans to begin sending its second-most potent AI processors to China before the Lunar New Year break in mid-February.
The U.S. chipmaker intends to ship 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, or around 40,000 to 80,000 H200 AI chips, in order to meet initial requests from current stock.
NVIDIA has also informed Chinese customers that it intends to expand its chip production capacity, with orders for that capacity opening in the second quarter of 2026.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty because Beijing has not yet authorized any H200 acquisitions, and government choices could cause the timeframe to change.
A BIG CHANGE IN POLICY
Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement this month that Washington would permit such sales with a 25% tax, the anticipated shipments would be the first supplies of H200 chips to China.
In keeping with his promise to permit the sales, the Trump administration has started an inter-agency assessment of license applications for H200 chip sales to China.
The action marks a significant change in policy from the Biden administration, which prohibited the sale of cutting-edge AI chips to China on the grounds of national security.
Despite being replaced by the company’s more recent Blackwell chips, the H200, a component of Nvidia’s earlier Hopper line, is still often utilized in AI.
There is a shortage of H200s since Nvidia has concentrated production on Blackwell and the next Rubin line.
Trump’s move coincides with China’s efforts to grow its own AI chip industry. Some worries permitting imports could impede domestic progress because local businesses have not yet been able to match the H200’s performance.
Chinese officials discussed the issue in emergency meetings earlier this month and are considering whether to permit shipments.
According to the newspaper, one idea would mandate that every H200 purchase be paired with a predetermined ratio of domestic chips.
The possible shipments would provide Chinese IT behemoths like Alibaba Group and ByteDance—which have shown interest in purchasing H200 chips—access to processors that are around six times more potent than the H20, a downgraded chip that Nvidia created just for China.
